記憶體需求上升,Gartner預估2017全球半導體市場將成長12.3%
國際研究機構 Gartner 表示,受到標準型記憶體(commodity memory)的需求上漲, 2017 年全球半導體營收預計將達到3,860億美元,相較 2016 增加12.3%。不過隨著中國將投入記憶體產業,市場預期在2019年進入修正期。<p>由於高階智慧型手機、繪圖卡、遊戲主機與汽車應用的生產估值已經調升,2017年半導體市場前景將更為看好。此外,大量使用DRAM與NAND Flash的PC、Ultramobile、伺服器與固態硬碟等電子設備,也帶動營收的增加。</p> <p>Gartner 研究總監 Jon Erensen 表示:雖然DRAM和NAND Flash價格雙雙上漲,使半導體市場前景更為看好,但智慧型手機、個人電腦(PC)與伺服器系統廠商的獲利可能因此下降。在零組件缺貨、原物料價格上漲和業者可能提高平均售價(ASP)做為因應的狀態下,2017年與2018年市場預料將更為動盪。</p> <p>自2016年中以來,個人電腦DRAM價格已上漲一倍。原本12.50美元的4GB模組,現在已漲到將近25美元,NAND Flash的平均售價也從2016下半年持續上揚到今年第一季。Gartner預期DRAM與NAND的價格將在2017年第二季達到頂峰,不過整體價格回跌可能要等到今年底,主要原因是在於智慧型手機等主要應用的容量需求增加。</p> <p>而市場修正期的來臨,Jon Erensen表示須等到2019年,一方面隨著記憶體廠商的毛利提升,中國將展開一系列行動來擴增新的記憶體產能;同時物聯網( IoT )和穿戴式裝置所帶來的商機仍未明朗,不足以對2017年整體半導體營收成長率產生重大影響。」</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div id="_mcePaste" class="mcePaste" style="position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">Gartner</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">研究總監</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US"><a href="https://www.gartner.com/analyst/18692">Jon Erensen</a></span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">表示:「雖然</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">DRAM</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">與</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">NAND Flash</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">價格雙雙上漲,讓整體半導體市場前景更為看好,但這也對智慧型手機、個人電腦</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">(PC)</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">與伺服器系統廠商的獲利帶來壓力。零組件缺貨、原物料價格上漲,加上業者可能必須提高平均售價</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">(ASP)</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">做為因應,</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年與</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2018</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年市場都將因此動盪。」</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">從</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年中以來,個人電腦用</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">DRAM</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">價格已上漲一倍。原來只要</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">12.50</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美元的</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">4GB</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">模組,現在已漲到將近</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">美元,</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">NAND Flash</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">的平均售價也從</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2016</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">下半年持續上揚到今年第一季。</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">Gartner</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">預期</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">DRAM</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">與</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">NAND</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">的價格將在</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年第二季達到頂峰,不過整體價格回跌可能要一直持續到今年年底,主要原因是在於智慧型手機等主要應用的容量需求增加,廠商就會開始搶貨。</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; color: gray; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">Jon Erensen</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">指出:「</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年隨著記憶體廠商的毛利提升,廠商也開始佈局新產能擴增計畫。我們預期中國大陸將因此展開一系列行動以發展記憶體產業,而此舉也會造成市場將在</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2019</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年衰退。」</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">由於頂級智慧型手機、繪圖卡、遊戲主機與汽車應用的單位生產量預估值已經調升,</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US"> 2017</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年半導體市場前景更為看好。此外,大量使用</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">DRAM</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">與</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">NAND Flash</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">的</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">PC</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">、</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">ultramobile</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">、伺服器與固態硬碟等電子設備,也將帶動半導體營收預估值的增加。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; color: gray; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">Jon Erensen</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">認為:「物聯網</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">(IoT)</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">和穿戴式裝置所帶來的相關的半導體商機逐漸崛起,但前景仍不明朗,主要原因在於這些市場處於發展初期而且規模太小,不足以對</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 標楷體; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">2017</span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: 標楷體; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">年半導體整體營收成長率產生重大影響。」</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Arial&quot;,sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; color: gray; mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;</span></p> </div><a href="http://www.facebook.com/TKbang">加入T客邦Facebook粉絲團</a><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/techbang/~4/iI24mGkO2jo" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>