Opinion | How the ‘G2’ effect of Trump-Xi summit is reverberating through Asia

For American and Chinese people interested in the outcome of the latest summit between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, their conclusions could not be more different if they turn to the media and pundits for guidance.

Chinese state media spared no superlative, echoing the official description of the summit as: forging the right way for the major powers to get along and writing a new chapter in ties. It played up the fact that Trump gave Xi the highest-level reception and met him at the airport, the first time since 1962 that a US president has done so for a visiting leader other than a pope.

By contrast, US media and pundits were almost united in dismissing the summit as heavy on symbolism and light on substance, noting that both leaders played down their stark differences and delivered little more than a two-month extension of the trade truce and a new dialogue on artificial intelligence.

Both camps may be off the mark. Chinese state media went over the top. But US commentators were too harsh, ignoring what the summit showed: the arrival of “G2” and its effects are being felt in Asia, particularly in Japan and Taiwan.

The idea of a US-China Group of Two framework was first floated by American thinkers in 2005; Trump revived it at the Busan summit last October. His turnaround is striking.

For nearly eight years, Washington took on China across the board, from trade to technology and chips. Now Trump has rolled out the red carpet for Xi’s first state visit to the US in 11 years. Beijing may not embrace the G2 label in public, but Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the visit was meant to put ties on an equal footing. The pageantry and pomp showed Washington was finally treating Beijing as an equal.

Interestingly, the two leaders agreed to build a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability based on respect, fairness and reciprocity”. Fairness and reciprocity have long been Washington’s words, used to demand China play fair in trade and investment. Intriguingly, they also recalled that China and the US were World War II allies. The significance should not be underestimated, for two reasons.

First, the message seems that while the two countries may not become allies again, they can once more work together on bilateral issues and global challenges. Second, the reference to the wartime fight against Japanese militarism has practical weight for regional stability, particularly for Beijing’s ties with Tokyo and Taipei.

At the welcome ceremony, Trump said American and Chinese “common interests” had “even made us allies in World War II” while Xi went further at the state dinner, saying the two peoples stood shoulder to shoulder “against Japanese militarist aggressors”. The White House readout repeated the point.

This is more than history. It boosts Beijing’s narrative against Tokyo at a fraught time. Ties have worsened since last November, when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Taiwan crisis could draw a Japanese military response. Since then, Beijing has run propaganda and economic pressure campaigns, accusing Japan of reviving militarism.

The joint references to World War II left Tokyo confused and uneasy. Takaichi said she would not comment on every word; Trump called her for about 20 minutes to brief her. The speed of that call says something about how much reassurance is needed.

The World War II talk also unsettled Taiwan, since America’s allies in China then were mostly Kuomintang forces, not Communist troops. And Taiwan itself was played down. Xi urged Washington to oppose Taiwan independence. The White House statement did not mention the island.

US ambassador to China David Perdue said in a post-summit interview that US policy has not changed. Then he added something intriguing: Trump asked Xi “at one point” whether China wanted to buy American weapons. Trump denied it, said Perdue was probably talking about Taiwan but added “maybe it’s a good idea” to make such an offer to Beijing.

Perdue also said the two men would continue to discuss arms sales to Taiwan, which sits badly with the US pledge in 1982 not to consult Beijing on the matter. All this follows Trump’s pause on a record US$14 billion package after the Beijing summit in May. He called the sale a “very good negotiating chip” with China.

The two leaders also discussed Russia, North Korea and Iran. Trump pushed for three-way arms control talks with Russia and China, though China has long refused to join such talks and the White House readout did not say it agreed. Shenzhen may offer a chance. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit there in November and a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi had been “discussed”.

The G2 is not a done deal. Trump is the outlier in a cabinet full of hawks, and he is as well known for his deal-making as for his unpredictability. The November midterm elections, when Democrats are widely expected to win back the House, add more uncertainty. But the two men will meet again in Shenzhen and at the G20 in Miami in December, which would make four meetings in one year. The summit has also locked in stability between two economies in open confrontation until last year.

To be sure, the two major powers will keep competing hard on AI and other frontier technologies, but the summit shows they can still work together where their interests meet.

The rest of the world does not need a formal G2 to feel its effects. When the two biggest powers speak of respecting each other and swap stories about a war against Japan, the message is loud and clear.