Editorial | No silver bullet for Hong Kong’s falling birth rate

Despite a government cash incentive for young couples to have children, Hong Kong’s birth rate continues to fall. It is driving the ageing of a society in which one in four people is projected to be 65 or over by 2028. Unless the trend is arrested, one in three residents is projected to be 65 or over by the 2040s. One projection puts the number of elderly residents at 2.74 million by 2046.

Granted, it is not all bad news. One reason for the population ageing is increased longevity. But the fact remains that we can expect proportionately fewer younger people to support more elderly residents, while proportionately more people may need elderly care.

As a result, three years ago, the government launched its HK$20,000 baby-bonus scheme to lift the birth rate, setting aside HK$2.28 billion (US$291 million) to fund it over three years. The Labour and Welfare Bureau reported that, as of February, more than 40 per cent was unclaimed.

Declining fertility remains the broader trend. Hong Kong saw a record low of only 31,714 registered births in 2025 – a far cry from official projections made in 2024 that the number of births could rise from about 32,500 in 2022, during Covid-affected times, to around 39,000 a year. By April, the disappointing outcome had prompted the government to review the scheme six months before it was due to end.

Meanwhile, the number of births has continued to fall. The city recorded 29,700 births between mid-2025 and mid-2026, the lowest since official records began in 1962. And in the first eight months of this year, the city saw only 19,255 births, a 10 per cent drop compared with the same period in 2025.

A survey of 1,166 young people aged 13 to 29, released last year by the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups, found that only 36.5 per cent were interested in having children, while 30.6 per cent did not want any at all.

The reasons for such disinterest are understandably varied and highly personal. Job insecurity in the age of disruption by artificial intelligence, the costs of education and an unwillingness to make lifestyle trade-offs are likely to play a part.

Nonetheless, the government has doubled down on the baby bonus commitment, with added tax and housing incentives. In his recent policy address, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu not only extended the scheme for another three years, but also raised the cash bonus for second and subsequent children to HK$30,000, and the tax allowance for such children from HK$140,000 to HK$160,000.

Other measures include waiving stamp duties for families who buy properties from one year before to two years after childbirth, capped at HK$20,000, and raising the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for families with newborns applying for subsidised flats to ease their down payment burden. As University of Hong Kong economics professor Michael Wong pointed out, the lack of affordable housing was a critical problem for young families.

The goal is to create a conducive environment for childbearing, Lee said. This includes addressing not just financial pressures but also workplace demands and childcare needs.

It is worth noting that women make up just slightly more than half of university students and graduates in Hong Kong. As childcare still tends to fall on women, if higher-educated women are to balance raising children with a professional life, they need access to affordable quality childcare while working, and job and income protection while parenting.

The baby bonus cannot address such structural issues. The revamped scheme should be monitored for opportunities for family-friendly outcomes apart from handouts, which can soon be exhausted by normal child-rearing expenses.

Lee rightly acknowledged that even if economic factors were the main considerations, no single payment could guarantee an increase in births. “These are very personal matters,” he said.

The authorities had sought to ease the burden on working parents by expanding childcare and after-school care services. Along with economic measures, that is the right approach to tackling a complex issue. To really make a difference, the government should consider further enhancing these schemes.